A couple of recent news items from the Recording Academy may give us some hints about what to expect when the Grammy nominations are announced on Friday Nov. 7.
On Monday (Nov. 3), the academy announced that they have added approximately 2,900 new voting members this year as part of their years-long effort to diversify the voting body. Of the newly-admitted members, 49% are age 39 and under, 60% are people of color and 30% identify as women.
Also, for the first time, invitations to join the Recording Academy were extended to all voting members of the Latin Recording Academy. Many accepted the offer. That’s a strong indicator that Bad Bunny could be headed for his second album of the year nod for Debí Tirar Más Fotos. He was already a likely nominee in that category, especially since Sept. 28, when he was announced as next year’s Super Bowl halftime headliner. Now, he seemingly can’t miss. The influx of Latin Recording Academy members also puts Karol G, who is entered with Tropicoqueta, in the album of the year conversation.
Last Thursday, the academy announced the names of the celebrities who will participate in Friday’s nominations livestream, including several artists who are vying for nods – Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, Brandi Carlile, Doechii, Jon Batiste and the aforementioned Karol G. Just because someone has been invited to announce some nominees on the livestream doesn’t automatically mean they’re going to be nominated, but if you’re looking for every conceivable hint and clue (and we are!), it’s a positive sign. Would the academy really ask an A-lister like Carpenter to participate in their livestream if she was shut out in the nominations? (That would be “Manchild” behavior.)
Kendrick Lamar (GNX) and Lady Gaga (MAYHEM) are probably this year’s surest bets for album of the year nods. It would be the fifth nomination in the category as lead (or co-lead) artists for both artists. Neither has ever won in the category. If Lamar is nominated, he’ll become the first solo artist in Grammy history to receive album of the year nods for five consecutive studio albums.
Elton John and Coldplay could be headed for their fourth nods in the category – John for his collab with Carlile, Who Believes in Angels?; Coldplay for Moon Music. Carlile, Batiste (Big Money) and Justin Bieber (Swag) could be headed for their third nods in the category.
We could see history made on Friday, if three rap albums are nominated for album of the year. There have never been more than two rap albums nominated in any one year. Lamar’s GNX seems a lock for a nomination. Clipse’s Let God Sort Em Out and Tyler, the Creator’s CHROMAKOPIA also have a good shot.
Two soundtracks are strong contenders – KPop Demon Hunters, which has been an inescapable pop-culture phenomenon, and Wicked, which stars a major pop star (Ariana Grande) as well as a near-EGOT (Cynthia Erivo). But in the last 30 years, just three soundtracks have been nominated for album of the year – and all three were linked to a top-name producer – Waiting to Exhale (Babyface), O Brother, Where Art Thou? (T Bone Burnett) and Black Panther (Kendrick Lamar).
Debut or breakthrough albums often make the album of the year finals. Leon Thomas’ second album, Mutt, and debut releases by Alex Warren (You’ll Be Alright, Kid) and sombr (I Barely Know Her) are contenders this year. Olivia Dean’s breakthrough album, The Art of Loving, was released after the end of the eligibility period (Aug. 31, 2024, to Aug. 30, 2025). It will be eligible here next year, though Dean is eligible for best new artist this year, and is among the front-runners in that category.
Other albums, not already mentioned, that are strong contenders include The Weeknd‘s Hurry Up Tomorrow, Tate McRae’s So Close to What, Laufey’s A Matter of Time, Bon Iver’s SABLE, fABLE, Jelly Roll’s Beautifully Broken, HAIM’s I Quit, Lorde’s Virgin and Kali Uchis’ Sincerely.
Here are the eight albums most likely to be nominated for album of the year. They are listed in alphabetical order by artist, as they will appear on the official Grammy nominations list. We show you how many album of the year nominations the artist has previously received as a lead artist and how high this album placed on the Billboard 200.
